Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Drop 37% Under President Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics

The mean count of daily killings monthly in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh official figures. However, security specialists have cautioned that homicide numbers may not point to better countrywide security.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September of last year. This data was provided by the chief of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded over these past months is very significant,” the President remarked, adding that last month the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly military campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent times. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over four times higher than the US. From that point, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an apparently more pronounced reduction in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the President declared: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central components of the President's security plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

But, security analysts cautioned that using homicide data to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is particularly true given the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be positive information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of everyday homicides was also an issue because it may obscure periods when there were notably elevated levels of murders.

“Using the daily mean makes surges of violence less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can cite the success of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for major crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

But despite these measures, Mexico remains plagued by high violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the country to express their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to build a narrative of safety. Politically it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” Vargas said.