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Amid the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another state and seize its president – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.